I'm not an economist. So I don't have a very good idea of what to think when I see headlines like
U.S. Trade Deficit Hit Highest Figure Ever in November. But two specific points in this NY Times article played to my deep fears of a major economic backlash against the US:
The jump in the trade deficit showed a surprising weakening in American exports across the board, from agricultural products to capital goods like aircraft and semiconductors. The figures released by the Commerce Department showed that the trade deficit is on pace to exceed $600 billion for 2004, up from $496.5 billion last year.
and this
(Treasury Secretary John W. Snow) blamed the United States' wealthy trading partners for growing too slowly and failing to buying enough American goods and services. He said that Europeans and the Japanese needed to expand their economies and buy more American products to improve the United States' trading picture, an issue he said would be discussed in two weeks at the meeting in London of Group of 7 wealthy industrial nations.
My concern when reading this is that the large anti-American movement (fueled of course by the actions of this administration) is having an effect upon American buisnesses overseas by prompting foreign consumers to choose brands other than American. I.E. the negative press we've generated is now biting us in the @ss. There is but scant anecdotal evidence available currently, but
this article mentions that Zogby is in the midst of a poll right now:
To that point, polling firm Zogby International has begun the first part of what is projected to be a $1 million global market research campaign Reinhard characterizes as "global listening."
The first stage will involve polling 60 U.S. business and thought leaders on how anti-Americanism is affecting them. That should be finished before April, followed by a 27-country listening project to try to get deeper into what corporations are doing and what foreigners want them to do.
As for the anecdotal evidence, well check out that ariticle, or this related article for a discussion. Here is one of the snippets:
A survey conducted after the presidential election by Seattle-based Global Market Insite Inc. found negative feelings about Americans to be stronger than any time since the Vietnam War, with about 20 percent of Europeans saying they would boycott such American icons as Marlboro, American Express and General Motors to express displeasure.
and this:
There already are signs that American firms are confronting bumps in the road in Europe. German consumers, for instance, have lost their appetite for McDonald's burgers and fries, with the resulting loss almost wiping out overall Europe-wide sales growth in October, the burger giant said.
Coke, which makes 90 percent of its profits outside the United States, said sales in Germany are down 16 percent vs. 2003. Wal-Mart, Gap, GM (which has 11 plants in eight European countries) and Marlboro are among U.S. companies and brands that have reported sales slumps in Germany or France. And Euro Disney, Europe's biggest theme park operator with Disneyland-Paris, is $3 billion in debt and faced bankruptcy earlier this year.
and this too:
Simon Anholt, one of the world's best-known brand consultants and author of the upcoming book, "Brand America," said six major themes are coinciding for the first time in history to work against American brands: the cumulative ill will from wars in Vietnam and Iraq; America's perceived militarism and go-it-alone foreign policy; the Enron, Arthur Andersen and Tyco scandals, which tarnished American corporate images; America's snubbing of the Kyoto treaty on global warming; and negative media images of American society from such books and movies as "Fast Food Nation," "Bowling for Columbine" and "Fahrenheit 9/11."
"My guess is that Brand America is perilously close to one of those tipping points where something almost unassailably powerful and popular becomes almost irreversibly loathed, almost overnight," Anholt said. "If this happens, it would have dire consequences for all U.S. exports, whether commercial, cultural, social, human, or political."
I'm sure that China pegging its currency to ours is playing a big role in our record busting trade deficit. However, are we now getting some comeupance for the cowboy behaviors this administration shows? I guess we'll have to wait till the great wizard Zogby tells all in April.